Tuesday, September 9, 2014

What Obama ought to say tomorrow night

He ought to set forth our objectives, our goals, in the Middle East.  What America wants of achieve.  You gotta sort out your goals before getting into methods (bombing, blockade, ground invasion, etc.  Included as a goal, is who gets control of the ISIS controlled Iraq and Syria.  Without goals, it's hard to enlist allies in a crusade.  Might as well use the good old word that we all understand and the Arabs all hate. 
Possible goals, listed from soft to hard.
1.  Stay out of it.  Let ISIS grab as much territory as it likes.  Obama personally likes this one, but fears the voters will turn on him and the Democrats if he voices it.
2.  Contain ISIS.  Prevent them from grabbing more territory but let them live and keep what they have.  Lotta people like this, it seems cheap and easy.  It leaves a deadly enemy in control of a lotta oil, lotta land, lotta people.  They could well bide their time, build up their strength and try something like 9-11 in a couple of years.
3.  Destroy ISIS.  Kill their leadership, drive their supporters into the desert, lay waste to their croplands, bomb their industry, "dehouse" their workers.  Seize their oil fields, refineries and pipelines.  Decide what to do with ISIS controlled territory.  Give it to the Shia Baghdad government? set up a new Sunni government?  give a goodly slice to the Kurds?  Since ISIS controls a swath of Syria as well as most of Sunni Iraq,  we will have to do something about Assad after we blow ISIS away and seize the ISIS lands in Syria. 

Obama may not want to express a goal.  Partly 'cause he fears he will be unable to get agreement on a goal that he likes, and partly 'cause he will get blamed if he fails to achieve a goal once he announces it. 

My bet.  Obama will not talk about goals,  and at best he will discuss/advocate for, some air strikes, big enough to look good on TV, but not enough to really hurt ISIS.  That will quiet down the domestic hawks.  Then he will call for allies, European and Arab to step up to the plate and commit troops, aircraft, money and jet fuel.   Which they will fail to do, 'cause they have no idea what the Americans are gonna do, and don't want to risk war unless they understand what's in it for them. 

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